|

Western forests are dying from drought
and the fire season in the west has come earlier than ever with
officials now reporting conditions in early May like those not
formerly seen until July.

We are destroying ourselves
Shortsighted men ... in their greed and
selfishness will, if permitted, rob our country of half its
charm by their reckless extermination of all useful and
beautiful wild things. -- Theodore Roosevelt.
"If the world were a huge airplane about to crash, would
it really matter that you were seated in first class?"
With carbon levels having risen by only 90 parts per million
(from their pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to more than 370 ppm
today), glaciers are now melting into puddles, sea levels are
rising, violent weather is increasing and the timing of the
seasons has changed--all from a 1-degree Fahrenheit rise in the
past century. Carbon concentrations of 450 ppm will most likely
result in a deeply fractured and chaotic world...The
Nation
Now the
Pentagon tells Bush:
climate change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
Mark
Townsend and Paul Harris in New York
Sunday February
22, 2004
The Observer
Climate change
over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe
costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defense chiefs and obtained
by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk
beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian'
climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and
widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring
the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear
threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy
supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of
terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,'
concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would
define human life.'
The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush
administration, which has repeatedly denied that climate change
even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling
reading for a President who has insisted national defense is a
priority.
The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defense
adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US
military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man
behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the
American military under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate
to a US national security concern', say the authors, Peter
Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal
Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based
Global Business Network.
An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is
'plausible and would challenge United States national security
in ways that should be considered immediately', they conclude.
As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea
levels will create major upheaval for millions.
Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire from
a large body of respected scientists who claimed that it
cherry-picked science to suit its policy agenda and suppressed
studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a former
whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said
that suppression of the report for four months was a further
example of the White House trying to bury the threat of climate
change.
Senior climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts
could prove the catalyst in forcing Bush to accept climate
change as a real and happening phenomenon. They also hope it
will convince the United States to sign up to global treaties to
reduce the rate of climatic change.
A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the White
House to voice their fears over global warming, part of an
intensifying drive to get the US to treat the issue seriously.
Sources have told The Observer that American officials appeared
extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints
that America's public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.
One even alleged that the White House had written to complain
about some of the comments attributed to Professor Sir David
King, Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser, after he branded
the President's position on the issue as indefensible.
Among those scientists present at the White House talks were
Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief environmental adviser
to the German government and head of the UK's leading group of
climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should
prove the 'tipping point' in persuading Bush to accept climatic
change.
Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the
Meteorological Office - and the first senior figure to liken the
threat of climate change to that of terrorism - said: 'If the
Pentagon is sending out that sort of message, then this is an
important document indeed.'
Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and former
chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, added
that the Pentagon's dire warnings could no longer be ignored.
'Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow off
this sort of document. Its hugely embarrassing. After all,
Bush's single highest priority is national defense. The Pentagon
is no wacko, liberal group, generally speaking it is
conservative. If climate change is a threat to national security
and the economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the
Bush Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby and the
Pentagon,' added Watson.
'You've got a President who says global warming is a hoax,
and across the Potomac river you've got a Pentagon preparing for
climate wars. It's pretty scary when Bush starts to ignore his
own government on this issue,' said Rob Gueterbock of Greenpeace.
Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is
carrying a higher population than it can sustain. By 2020
'catastrophic' shortages of water and energy supply will become
increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war.
They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought
widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of
populations that could soon be repeated.
Randall told The Observer that the potential ramifications of
rapid climate change would create global chaos. 'This is
depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is a national security threat
that is unique because there is no enemy to point your guns at
and we have no control over the threat.'
Randall added that it was already possibly too late to
prevent a disaster happening. 'We don't know exactly where we
are in the process. It could start tomorrow and we would not
know for another five years,' he said.
'The consequences for some nations of the climate change are
unbelievable. It seems obvious that cutting the use of fossil
fuels would be worthwhile.'
So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said, that
they may prove vital in the US elections. Democratic frontrunner
John Kerry is known to accept climate change as a real problem.
Scientists disillusioned with Bush's stance are threatening to
make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.
The fact that Marshall is behind its scathing findings will
aid Kerry's cause. Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon legend who heads
a secretive think-tank dedicated to weighing risks to national
security called the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed 'Yoda' by
Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is
credited with being behind the Department of Defense's push on
ballistic-missile defense.
Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political
interference, said that the suppression of the report was a
further instance of the White House trying to bury evidence of
climate change. 'It is yet another example of why this
government should stop burying its head in the sand on this
issue.'
Symons said the Bush administration's close links to
high-powered energy and oil companies was vital in understanding
why climate change was received sceptically in the Oval Office.
'This administration is ignoring the evidence in order to
placate a handful of large energy and oil companies,' he added.
Guardian
Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004
National Artic Wildlife
Refuge
“Ninety-five percent of the great arctic
coastal plain – thousands of square miles – already is open
to oil exploration… But they want more. They want to invade a
small, 110-mile strip of coastline in the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge – all for an oil supply that would take 10
years or more to bring to market and then may satisfy only about
six months of our national demand.”--Defenders of Wildlife
“Even modest gains in energy efficiency would
far exceed anything we could get from the Arctic refuge. Just
raising the fuel
efficiency standards for new vehicles by three mpg, for
instance, would save more oil, in less than 10 years, than all
the crude we could pump from the Arctic refuge.”-- Brooks
Yeager, World Wildlife Fund-US
The great diversity of vegetation and topography in this compact
area, together with its relatively undisturbed condition, led to
its selection as ... one of our remaining wildlife and
wilderness frontiers."--Frederick Seaton, Eisenhower’s
Secretary of Interior, 1960
In 1960, when [the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge] was
established, we made a promise to future generations. If we
can't keep that promise, how can we trust ourselves to save the
rest of our treasures . . . the Everglades, Yellowstone, the
Hawaiian rainforest. Where does it end? I say it ends now . . .
at Arctic.”-- Jamie Rappaport Clark, Director, U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, 11/1/00
|
The
Blue Frontier Campaign to Save Our Living Seas
|
|
by Ralph Nader
|
The oceanic crises are obvious. The decline in ocean
fisheries has driven some species close to extinction. Giant
trawlers scrape the bottom of the seas over a region equal to
the size of the United States, wreaking eco havoc. Fish-catching
giant nets and their accompanying technology shrink the giant
oceans and their underwater denizens. Environmentalist Barry
Commoner's insightful phrase-"the technosphere against the
ecosphere" comes to mind.
There is more. Nutrient runoff from factory farms and urban
storm drains create massive algal blooms, dead zones (as in the
Gulf of Mexico) and spread disease. Floods of chemicals are
pouring into the seas, and the growing economies of China and
India are seriously affecting their coastlines.India for years
has been dumping radioactive waste into its seas in containers
that do not last for more than a few decades. For more
information go to the website www.bluefront.org
Americans are “energy illiterate"
"The GOP Energy
Bill: An Infinite Mirage and a Boundless Facade"
U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd
The Center for Responsive Politics reports that the energy
industry gave more than $2.65 million to the Bush/Cheney
campaign in 2000. The oil and gas industry gave 68% of that
total. Not surprisingly, the media accounts are ripe with
stories of the Administration's contributors who have been
tripping over themselves to curry favors for their particular
energy interest. What about other groups? Were the interests of
the state and tribal interests, labor unions, consumer groups,
and environmental organizations at the table?
A lack of consensus on energy legislation has
rightfully raised concerns that the final product will be a
patchwork of compromises that do not truly solve our urgent
problems. The Republican Majority and the White House have put
together what amounts to a "pig-in-a-poke" energy bill
that include a number of items that remain enormously
controversial and have little to do with building the bipartisan
consensus essential for the development of a national energy
strategy. The legislation passed by this Senate last year and
this year has been largely ignored. Now, the Majority is
preparing to ram this hodgepodge through the conference, and we
are being forced to swallow it hook, line, and sinker. It is no
way to legislate, and it certainly is no way to develop such an
important national policy.
We cannot continue to conduct the nation's
business this way. The stakes are too high. Partisanship alone
is threatening enough to our ability to develop comprehensive
solutions to our energy problems. But, it is not just
partisanship that worries me. It is the utter contempt with
which this Administration apparently views the role of the
Legislative Branch. As the General Accounting Office has
learned, this Administration simply will not tolerate
legislative inquiry.
We need a comprehensive approach to our energy policy. What
do I mean by comprehensive? A comprehensive approach fully
integrates four fundamental principles: energy security to
encourage fuel diversity; fiscal soundness to increase economic
growth and the efficiency of production; consumer protections to
guard against fraud, market manipulation, and abuse; and
environmental sensitivity to minimize the impacts from waste and
emissions. These are essential elements for any comprehensive
energy policy. These elements must be fully integrated through a
policy that is designed to maximize fuel diversity and
efficiency of production while minimizing consumer abuse and
environmental degradation. These elements could provide a
complementary path forward, but this energy bill is a
significant detour.
|
Ozone
Layer 'Sacrificed' to Lift Bush's Re-Election Prospects
|
|
by Geoffrey Lean
|
| |
|
President George Bush has brought the international
treaty aimed at repairing the Earth's vital ozone layer
close to breakdown, risking millions of cancers, to
benefit strawberry and tomato growers in the electorally
critical state of Florida, The Independent on Sunday can
reveal.
His administration is insisting on a sharp increase in
spraying of the most dangerous ozone-destroying chemical
still in use, the pesticide methyl bromide, even though it
is due to be phased out under the Montreal Protocol in
little more than a year. And it has threatened that the
United States could withdraw from the treaty's provisions
altogether if its demand is not met.
The layer is made up of a type of oxygen so thinly
scattered though the upper atmosphere that, if gathered
together, it would girdle the globe with a ring no thicker
than the sole of a shoe. But it screens out harmful
ultraviolet rays from the sun that otherwise would wipe
out life. As the layer weakens, increasing amounts of rays
get through, causing skin cancer and blindness from
cataracts.
The provisions of the treaty, forecast to prevent two
million cancers in the West alone, have been progressively
tightened as the use of ozone-destroying chemicals has
been phased out in industrialized countries, developing
countries follow after a period of grace. Methyl bromide,
which has also been linked with prostate cancer, is one of
the last to be controlled; developed countries agreed in
1997 to stop using it by the end of next year. So far they
have succeeded in reducing it to 30 per cent of its former
level by introducing substitutes.
Several countries, however, foresee difficulties in
completing the phase-out in time, and have asked for
year-long "critical exemptions" for some limited
uses, as permitted under the treaty. But uniquely, the US,
which already accounts for a quarter of the world's use of
the pesticide, is demanding that it should indefinitely
increase its use.
|
Published
on Sunday, December 7, 2003 by the lndependent/UK
|
|
Global Warming: Melting Ice 'Will Swamp
Capitals'
|
|
by Geoffrey Lean
|
| |
|
Measures to fight global warming will have to
be at least four times stronger than the Kyoto
Protocol if they are to avoid the melting of the
polar ice caps, inundating central London and many
of the world's biggest cities, concludes a new
official report.
The report, by a German government body, says
that even if it is fully implemented, the protocol
will only have a "marginal attenuating
effect" on the climate change. But last week
even this was thrown into doubt amid contradictory
signals from the Russian government as to whether
it will allow the treaty to come into effect.
Global warming already kills 150,000 people a
year worldwide and the rate of climate change is
soon likely to exceed anything the planet has seen
"in the last million years" says the
report, produced by the German Advisory Council on
Global Change for a meeting of the world's
environment ministers to consider the future of
the treaty in Milan this week.
It concludes that the protocol must urgently be
brought into force, but only as a first step,
insisting that "catastrophic" climate
change "can now only be prevented if climate
protection targets are set at substantially higher
levels than those agreed internationally until
now".
The report, written by eight leading German
professors, says that "dangerous climatic
changes" will become "highly
probable" if the world's average temperature
is allowed to increase to more than 2 degrees
centigrade above what it was before the start of
the Industrial Revolution.
Beyond that level the West Antarctic ice sheet
and the Greenland ice cap would begin gradually to
melt away, eventually raising sea levels world
wide by up to 30 feet, submerging vast areas of
land and key cities worldwide. London, New York,
Miami, Bombay, Calcutta, Sydney, Shanghai, Lagos
and Tokyo would be among those largely submerged
by such a rise.
Above this mark too, other
"devastating" and
"irreversible" changes would be likely
to take place. These include a cessation of the
Indian monsoon and the ending of the Gulf Stream,
which would dramatically worsen the climate in
Britain and western Europe, even as the world
warms. Another risk is the so-called "runaway
greenhouse" where rising temperatures lead to
the release of huge reservoirs methane stored in
permafrost and the oceans, adding to global
warming and starting a self-reinforcing cycle that
would eventually make the earth uninhabitable.
To avoid such catastrophe, the report says that
industrialized countries will have to cut
emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide
by at least 20 per cent by 2020, and by up to 60
per cent by 2050. The Kyoto Protocol would at best
cut them by 5 per cent by 2012, and probably less,
even if it were brought into force and fully
implemented.
In the meantime the world looks as if it will
greatly exceed the targets. Writing in The
Independent on Sunday today, Michael Meacher, the
former environment minister, calculates that
global emissions of greenhouse gases could
increase by 75 per cent by 2020, "putting the
world well on the way to doomsday".
© 2003 Independent Digital (UK)
Ltd
|
Nothing
Virtual About Global Warming
|
|
by Richard Steiner
December 19, 2003 by the Seattle
Post-Intelligencer
|
President Bush recently chided Saddam Hussein
for his cowardly attempt to hide, saying that
"when the heat got on, you dug yourself a
hole and you crawled in it." These same words
also describe the attempts by Bush and friends to
evade the issue of global warming. It's time for
them to crawl out of their hole.
The overwhelming scientific consensus is that
global warming is real, it's serious, it's caused
mostly by humans and it is to some extent
correctable. But due to the intransigence of the
Bush administration and comrades, virtually
nothing has been done to correct it.
These folks have not only tried to scuttle the
Kyoto Protocol but the U.S. Senate recently voted
down an even more modest attempt to cap greenhouse
gas emissions -- the Climate Stewardship Act of
2003 -- in the United States at the year 2000
levels by year 2010. That would be far less
extensive than cuts proposed by Kyoto. The act was
broadly supported by mayors, unions and insurers
and would have saved the U.S. economy some $48
billion a year in energy savings alone. But the
administration and Senate conservatives would have
nothing of it.
Worse, Congress is on the verge of passing a
disastrous energy bill that only digs our
fossil-energy hole deeper. This was the bill that
was drawn up behind closed doors by Vice President
Cheney's energy task force -- a group of old-guard
fossil-fuel tycoons. Such policy is steering us to
a train wreck, and it is time all Americans said
enough is enough.
If the present impacts of global warming are of
concern, the future looks far worse. But instead
of acting on this information, the current
administration is issuing calls for more studies
and voluntary actions. Administration officials
have fabricated "scientific uncertainty"
as a reason to do nothing. With an issue so
important to the future of humanity, such
paralysis-by-analysis is outrageous.
We need to reduce global carbon emissions by
about two-thirds, and we know exactly how to do
this: more energy efficient cars and power plants,
mass transit and alternative energy sources,
improved building and appliance standards,
efficiency subsidies, and so on. We need an energy
bill to do precisely that, and Americans should
insist that Congress kill the current energy bill
and make a real attempt to solve the
energy/warming problem.
Despite the administration's deceits, such
precautionary action would not only alleviate
global warming but also help relieve our energy
crisis, reduce health impacts of air pollution and
improve our economy as well.
The only real question left in the global
warming debate is how long we will let Bush and
his political allies hide in their hole.
Richard Steiner is a conservation specialist
with the University of Alaska Marine Advisory
Program in Anchorage.
|
OIL
President Bush expressed their
sentiments best: “We need an energy policy that
encourages consumption.” What more need be said?
THE OIL TRIBE In 1859 oil was struck in
Pennsylvania. The magic fluid unleashed Yankee ingenuity,
put America on wheels, and helped to create the world’s
richest superpower. The transformation was unimaginably
swift: In 1859 Americans traveled on
horseback; in 1969
they drove Mustangs and flew to the Moon. Today it is
difficult to overstate oil's importance to our economy.
Four percent of the world's people, we use 25% of the
world's oil. We are an Oil Tribe, the Petroleum Clan,
imbibing about 3 gallons per person per day. The
automobile is our most cherished icon, a new car our
symbol of success. The local gasoline station is our
secular temple where each week 150 million Americans
"fill ‘er up." An average American drives
1,000 miles a month, 12,000 miles a year, the distance to
the Moon every 20 years. The Oil Tribe numbers 265
million. Together we weigh about 34 billion pounds. Hungry
for speed, addicted to motion, we consume our weight in
petroleum every 7 days.
BLESSED BY GEOLOGY Cheap oil has always been an
American birthright. Through fate and geology, the United
States was extravagantly blessed. Our original cargo was
about 260 billion barrels; only one country, Saudi Arabia,
had more. Oklahoma alone possessed more oil than Germany
or Japan. California had more than Germany, Japan, France,
Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Italy combined. The
U.S. has—or rather had—20 times as much oil as
India, 16 times as much as Brazil, 3 times more than
China.
STRENGTH THROUGH EXHAUSTION As recently as 1950
the U.S. was producing half the world’s oil. Forty-eight
years later, we don’t produce half our own oil. Domestic
production peaked in 1970, 27 years ago, and today we
produce just 45% of the crude we consume. To fuel our
economy we’ve drilled more and pumped longer than any
nation on Earth, pursuing an oil policy that’s been
called "Strength Through Exhaustion." Although
the U.S. remains the world’s third largest producer,
about 65% of our petroleum has been burned. It’s
downhill from here.
The U.S. is already one of the most thoroughly explored
and drilled countries on Earth. Of the 4.6 million wells
worldwide, 3.4 million have been drilled in this country.
Very very few prospects remain. With the exception of the
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and a few deep water
basins, we’ve been there and done that. From the oil
industry’s perspective, the U.S. is Swiss cheese.
THE
COMING PEAK In the same way that U.S. oil production
peaked in 1970, global production is destined to peak
during the first two decades of the coming century. Some
analysts expect a peak around 2005; some suggest it will
be 2010; others believe it will come as late as 2020. The
exact date can’t be predicted, since it will depend as
much on economic and political factors as on geology. The
biggest wild card? Saudi Arabia, the world’s most
prolific oil province. If the Saudis invest hundreds of
billions of dollars they could double their output to meet
expected demand. But they may decide not to double
production, choosing instead to produce somewhat less oil
and charge more for it. Although predicting the peak is
impossible, this great turning point is imminent.
COLLISION IN SLOW MOTION A decline in world
oil production? The thought takes some getting used to.
What seems impossible is inevitable. The crunch may arrive
suddenly. Or in slow motion. As Reagan’s former Energy
Secretary Donald Hodel says, "We’re sleepwalking to
disaster." When it happens, journalists will shout,
"We’re running out of oil." That’s not true.
Rather, we are running out of cheap oil. After
production peaks oil still will be readily available at a
higher price, though in slowly declining amounts, for at
least 50 years. What we face is not a short-term crisis
but a chronic shortfall. No one will freeze in the dark
(America still has a century of coal and 50 years worth of
natural gas), but the transition to more expensive oil
could be bumpy.
CRUDE CRUNCH As global oil production nears the
peak, oil prices will rise, perhaps overnight with
staggering impacts on the global economy. This absolutely
predictable, absolutely inevitable oil crunch will likely
have tremendous economic impacts. Hitting as the Baby
Boomers retire, it could rock our economy, psychology, and
sense of self.
ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL There are many ways to soften
the inevitable transition to a world in which oil is more
expensive. They include more efficient cars, smarter land
use planning, mass transit, and alternative fuels—but we
won't begin implementing them, at the local or national
level, until we recognize that a grave problem looms. At
the moment, this nation is asleep at the wheel. Time
is short. If we want to retool our transportation systems,
a world oil peak in 2010 or even 2020 is next month. A
peak in 2005 is a train wreck tomorrow. But few are
talking about this predictable development. Even fewer are
planning for it
CAR BOMB You hear about the population
explosion. And yes, the population has doubled from 3
billion to 6 billion since 1950. In the same period, car
numbers shot up from 50 million to 500 million. Cars, in
other words, are reproducing five times faster than
people. They’re breeding like (VW) Rabbits.
SPORT UTES In recent years, as oil prices have
plummeted, Americans have fallen in love with gas guzzling
minivans, light trucks, and sport utility vehicles. In
Seattle Microsoft millionaires drive Humvees. Light trucks
and sport utes command 45% of the new car market in the
U.S., a powerful trend aimed in exactly the wrong
direction. That these vehicles sell well is not
surprising. They tower above traffic, can summit Everest,
and are safe in a crash (good because sport utes have more
than their share.) If they’re thirsty, so what? Gasoline
costs are only 1/8th the total cost of driving.
Driving a car that gets 30 miles per gallon rather than a
15-mpg sport ute saves about $520 a year—not much in
many budgets. Americans care little about fuel efficiency
because gasoline is inexpensive. In Europe motorists pay
$3 to $5 a gallon. Most is tax, added by governments to
encourage conservation. A Suburban has a 40-gallon tank.
Filling up in Finland would cost 200 bucks. Needless to
say, Finns shun Suburbans. Bargain-rate gasoline has a
hidden cost, but we don’t pay it at the pump. Rather, we
pay $50 billion in taxes to protect access to Persian Gulf
oil, we pay in smog and premature deaths from air
pollution, we pay in climate change. But when gasoline is
less expensive than milk, Americans have little incentive
to conserve. People aren’t dumb.
Every 24 hours the global economy burns 73 million
barrels of oil. If you poured all that oil into a river it
would be the size of the Colorado as it flows through
Glenwood Springs. That modest river propels all motorized
motion on the planet. Every car in Carbondale, China, and
Chile. Every Boeing, every Airbus. Semis, autos, trucks,
bulldozers, B-1 bombers, motorcycles, supertankers,
tugboats, tractors, lawn mowers, snowmobiles, jet skis,
snowblowers… if it moves it’s powered by oil. Looking
ahead, oil demand is projected to increase rapidly. By
2010 most experts predict the world will be consuming 90
million barrels a day, 25% more than it does now.
Sometimes between 2005 and 2020, world oil production will
reach an apex, an all-time high, a peak. A plateau
in production will be followed by a relentless inexorable
decline. This petroleum primer was written by Randy Udall,
Director of the Community Office for Resource Efficiency,
with Steve Andrews, a Denver-based energy analyst.
In 1995, Petroconsultants published a report for oil
industry insiders titled WORLD OIL SUPPLY 1930-2050
($32,000 per copy) which concluded that world oil
production could peak as soon as the year 2000 and decline
to half that level by 2025. Large and permanent increases
in oil prices were predicted after the year 2000. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/0615/6112084a.htm
-- http://dieoff.com/page116.htm.
Petroleum experts Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere, Brian
Fleay, Roger Blanchard, Richard Duncan, Walter
Youngquist, and Albert Bartlett (using various
methodologies) have all estimated a "peak" in
"conventional oil" around 2005. Moreover, the
CEOs of Agip, ENI SpA, (Italian oil companies) and Arco
have all published estimates of peak in 2005. So it seems
like a reliable estimate.
This much is certain," he writes. "No
initiative put in place starting today can have a
substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian
Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no
SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be
brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for
the remaining oil."
We find that in 1993 total USA fuel use was 4.78 x
10e24 sej (increasing about 2% per year ever since). We
find that total net solar radiation absorption for Alaska
and the lower 48 was 4.48 x 10e22 sej. In
other words, the USA is presently using fossil fuels more
than 100 times greater than the total absorption of solar
radiation across the entire USA!
The fact
that our society can not survive on alternative energy
should come as no surprise, because only an idiot would
believe that windmills and solar panels can run
bulldozers, elevators, steel mills, glass factories,
electric heat, air conditioning, aircraft, automobiles,
etc., AND still have enough energy left over to support a
corrupt political system, armies, etc.
Population
To put this in context, you must remember that
estimates of the long-term carrying capacity of Earth with
relatively optimistic assumptions about consumption,
technologies, and equity (A x T), are in the vicinity of
two billion people. Today's population cannot be sustained
on the 'interest' generated by natural ecosystems, but is
consuming its vast supply of natural capital -- especially
deep, rich agricultural soils, 'fossil' groundwater, and
biodiversity -- accumulated over centuries to eons. In
some places soils, which are generated on a time scale of
centimeters per century are disappearing at rates of
centimeters per year. Some aquifers are being depleted at
dozens of times their recharge rates, and we have embarked
on the greatest extinction episode in 65 million years. --
Paul Ehrlich
(Sept. 25, 1998)
|
World's Farmers Stand in
Solidarity Against WTO
Published on Wednesday, October 29, 2003
by the Madison (WI) Capital Times
by James Goodman
U.S. Trade Minister Robert Zoellick and European Union Trade
Commissioner Pascal Lamy were both feeling rather miffed after
the World Trade Organization ministerial meetings in Cancun,
Mexico, collapsed last month. It was all supposed to go their
way, after all. They had always had their way; the economic
power of the United States and European Union were not to be
challenged. But the bullies lost their grip; their best-laid
plans swept aside by the "G-20 " - a group of
developing nations that said, "No more; listen to our
needs," and then walked out of the meetings..
..The WTO is an ugly creature, the lapdog of corporate greed,
but the campesinos saw through it, saw what it was doing to
farmers around the world. Workers and environmentalists saw
through it as well. They all came together in Seattle in 1999
and stopped it; every time the WTO gathered, protesters
confronted it and slowed it down. In Cancun we stopped it again.
Until governments begin to value people more than corporate
profit, the protests will continue, the struggle will survive.
James Goodman is a dairy farmer from Wonewoc who participated in
the campesino march in Cancun, Mexico, on Sept. 10.
WASHINGTON
- December 18 - Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich,
Co-Chair
of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, issued the following
statement today on Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA):
"CAFTA
not only rhymes with NAFTA, but will extend the economic 'disasta'
that Ohio knows something about to more Americans, especially in
the South. That is because CAFTA will cause the textile mills of
the Carolinas and Georgia to close in the face of imports made
cheaper by the agreement.
"Some
industry experts estimate that dozens of mills, and tens of
thousands of textile mill workers, that are currently hanging on,
will go bankrupt. The only beneficiaries will be companies with
Central American and Asian factories. The President has also
betrayed the millions of poor people in Central America. Under
CAFTA, they'll no longer be able to get access to low-cost
pharmaceuticals, which will be made illegal under CAFTA."
Nuclear Waste Technical Review
WASHINGTON
- October 22 - Statement by Wenonah Hauter, Director, Public
Citizen's Critical Mass Energy and Environment Program
The
Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board’s letter to the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) warning that man-made storage
containers at Yucca Mountain will probably leak should come as
no surprise. Despite a mound of sound scientific evidence
demonstrating the flaws of the Yucca Mountain plan, officials at
the DOE have been influenced by the nuclear industry instead of
by fact in their drive to build a high-level nuclear waste
repository. The new finding by the board — the same body that
in January 2002 called evidence supporting Yucca Mountain
"weak to moderate" — further confirms that the
project is unworkable and should be abandoned.
The
reliance on engineered barriers to permanently contain
dangerously radioactive waste for thousands of years is a huge
safety compromise. The original law mandating construction of a
permanent waste repository, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of
1982, called for a geologic barrier to permanently isolate the
waste from the surrounding environment, not a man-made one. When
it became apparent that the volcanic rock forming Yucca Mountain
could not adequately perform that critical function, the
government waived the requirement. This concession is part of a
larger pattern of making the laws fit the site, not making the
site fit the laws.
There are now more cars registered in the
United States than there are drivers’ licensees
Road to Ruin: How America is Ravaging the
Planet
America produces a quarter of the world's
carbon dioxide emissions, the population has risen by 100
million since 1970 and when an area three times the size of
Britain was recently opened up for mining, drilling, logging and
road building, no one took much notice. What does the Bush
administration do? It ignores all attempts to curb environmental
damage
Those of us without a degree in climatology can have no
sensible opinion on the truth about climate change, except to
sense that the weather does seem to have become a little weird
lately. Yet in America the subject has become politicized, with
rightwing commentators decrying global warming as "bogus
science". They gloated when it snowed unusually hard in
Washington last winter (failing to notice the absence of snow in
Alaska). When the dissident "good news" scientist
Bjorn Lomborg spoke to a conservative Washington thinktank he
was applauded not merely rapturously, but fawningly.
While newspapers report that Kilimanjaro's icecap is melting
and Greenland's glaciers are crumbling, the US government has
been telling its scientific advisers to do more research before
it can consider any action to restrict greenhouse gases; the
scientists reported back that they had done all the research.
The attitude of the White House to global warming was summed up
by the online journalist Mickey Kaus as: "It's not true!
It's not true! And we can't do anything about it!" What
terrifies all American politicians, deep down, is that it is
true and that they could do something about it, but at
horrendous cost to American industry and lifestyle.
"Remember, this country is built very heavily on the
frontier ethic," says Clapp. "How America moved west
was to
exhaust the land and move on. The original settlers, such
as the Jefferson family, moved westward because families like
theirs planted tobacco in tidewater Virginia and exhausted the
soil. My own ancestors did the same in Indiana."
Americans made crops grow in places that are entirely arid.
They built dams - about 250,000 of them. They built great
cities, with skyscrapers and symphony orchestras, in places that
appeared barely habitable. They shifted rivers, even reversed
their flow. "It's the American belief that with enough hard
work and perseverance anything - be it a force of nature, a
country or a disease - can be vanquished," says Clapp.
"It's a country founded on the idea of no limits. The
essence of environmentalism is that there are indeed limits.
It's one of the reasons environmentalism is a stronger ethic in
Europe than in the US."
There is a second reason: the staggering population growth of
the US. It is approaching 300 million, having gone up from 200
million in 1970, which was around the time President Nixon set
up a commission to consider the issue, the last time any US
administration has dared think about it. A million new legal
migrants are coming in every year (never mind illegals), and the
US Census Bureau projections for 2050, merely half a lifetime
away, is 420 million. This is a rate of increase far beyond
anything else in the developed world, and not far behind Brazil,
India, or indeed Mexico.
This issue is political dynamite, although not for quite the
same reasons as in Britain. Almost every political group is
split on the issue, including the far right (torn between overt
xenophobes such as Pat Buchanan and the free marketeers), the
labor movement and the environmentalists. The belief that the US
is the best country in the world is a cornerstone of national
self-belief, and many Americans still, wholeheartedly, want
others to share it. They also want cheap labor to cut the sugar
cane, pluck the chickens, pick the oranges, mow the lawns and
make the beds.
Not long ago I went for a walk in the Vallecito Mountains in
California. After a while, I got myself into a position where
the contours of the land blotted out everything and, after the
noise of a plane had died away, there was no sight or sound at
all that was not produced by nature. This lasted about a minute.
Then, from somewhere, a motorcycle roared into earshot.
Sure, there are still places in this vast country where it is
possible to escape, but they get harder and harder to find
except for the fit, the adventurous and those unencumbered by
children or jobs. Most Americans don't live that way. And
nowhere now is entirely safe from being ravaged, sometimes in
ways that prejudice the future of the whole planet. Al-Qaida
and the Iraqi bombers have no need to bother. America is
destroying itself.
To view the Bush Administration environmental record www.environment2004.org/index.php
Global Warming Gas Seen
Increasing Dramatically
- - New View of Data Supports Human Link to Global Warming
Global Warming Gas Seen Increasing Dramatically
Wed November 19, 2003 09:18 PM ET
By Jeff Franks
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide,
considered a culprit in global warming, are expected to increase
by 3.5 billion tonnes, or 50 percent, annually by the year 2020,
an executive for ExxonMobil Corp said on Wednesday.
At the same time, global demand for energy will rise by 40
percent as the world population increases and economies grow,
said Randy Broiles, global planning manager for Exxon's oil and
gas production unit.
"Between now and 2020 we estimate increases of some 3.5
billion tonnes per year of additional carbon emissions, so it's
definitely increasing," Broiles said at an energy
conference sponsored by accounting and consulting firm Deloitte.
He said about 7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is a
byproduct of burning fossil fuels, go into the earth's
atmosphere each year from power plants, cars and other sources.
Experts say the United States, which has the world's largest
economy and 4 percent of its population, is responsible for
about 25 percent of so-called "greenhouse" gases now
produced, but Broiles said most future growth in output will
come from developing countries.
"Eighty percent of that number, 80 percent of 3.5 billion
tonnes, is going to be driven by those developing countries,
those economies that are growing at the 4 to 5 percent range, so
that's where it's coming from," he said.
A huge increase in the number of cars will cause part of the
pollution growth.
Broiles said there are now 15 cars for every 1,000 people in the
world, but ExxonMobil expects that number to rise to 50 cars per
1,000 by 2020.
He said ExxonMobil foresees a 40 percent increase in energy
demand even though humans are boosting their energy efficiency
by about 1 percent a year. Despite advances in technology most
energy will still come from fossil fuels, and in particular oil
and gas, of which there remain very large reserves, he said.
"The oil resource base is huge -- it's huge -- and we
expect it to satisfy world demand growth well beyond 2020,"
he said.
Crimes Against Nature
Crimes Against Nature
Bush is sabotaging the laws that have protected America's
environment for more than thirty years
By Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
George W. Bush will go down in history as America's worst
environmental president. In a ferocious three-year attack, the
Bush administration has initiated more than 200 major rollbacks
of America's environmental laws, weakening the protection of our
country's air, water, public lands and wildlife. Cloaked in
meticulously crafted language designed to deceive the public,
the administration intends to eliminate the nation's most
important environmental laws by the end of the year. Under the
guidance of Republican pollster Frank Luntz, the Bush White
House has actively hidden its anti-environmental program behind
deceptive rhetoric, telegenic spokespeople, secrecy and the
intimidation of scientists and bureaucrats. The Bush attack was
not entirely unexpected. George W. Bush had the grimmest
environmental record of any governor during his tenure in Texas.
Texas became number one in air and water pollution and in the
release of toxic chemicals. In his six years in Austin, he
championed a short-term pollution-based prosperity, which
enriched his political contributors and corporate cronies by
lowering the quality of life for everyone else. Now President
Bush is set to do the same to America. After three years, his
policies are already bearing fruit, diminishing standards of
living for millions of Americans.
http://www.rollingstone.com/features/nationalaffairs/featuregen.asp?pid=2154&reset=true
What Did the EPA Know and When Did It Know It?
WASHINGTON - September 9, 2003
- JOEL KUPFERMAN,
Kupferman is the executive
director of the New York Environmental Law and Justice Project.
He said today: "On September 19, 2001, one day after the
EPA declared that the 'air was safe to breathe,' we took samples
in lower Manhattan and sent them to two respected labs -- the
results came back with alarmingly high levels of toxins such as
asbestos and fiberglass. We filed a Freedom of Information Act
request to the EPA, resulting in 800 pages of raw data which
revealed that -- in spite of their assurances to the contrary --
EPA, OSHA and the various other health and environmental
agencies knew of the dangers present at Ground Zero and beyond,
on the ground and in the air." Kupferman said the documents
showed that:
* "Analyses prepared for
the EPA by scientists were held back from publication, though
their findings were highly relevant to health care providers
trying to diagnose and treat those with acute symptoms, to say
nothing of the public at large, which deserved to know its own
risks."
* "High concentrations of
dangerous contaminants remained even three weeks after the
towers collapsed -- after, at EPA's urging, people were back in
the area, living and working full-time."
* "In the three weeks
following September 11, the agency was testing the ambient air
but not releasing the results, and it was not testing settled
dust with the highest-scrutiny techniques available -- choosing,
instead, cheaper and non-aggressive techniques that,
predictably, yielded lower results. Nor was it testing air
inside offices or apartments near Ground Zero, where people were
told it was safe to return within three days of the
disaster."
* "EPA also failed to
reveal that, for its own headquarters cleanup, it used a
particular type of high-sensitivity sampling method, called
micro-vacuum. EPA then took a position that micro-vac testing
was unnecessary for schools and residences in lower Manhattan.
EPA cleaned up its own headquarters using professional abatement
methods while directing residents to follow the city's
Department of Health instructions which recommended using 'a wet
rag or wet mop.' EPA also actively discounted results obtained
when the micro-vac was used independently in the
neighborhood."
Kupferman added: "In April
2002, the Uniformed Firefighters Association, concerned about
members' exposure, asked my organization to conduct testing on
fire engines; our testing showed up to 5 percent chrysotile
asbestos, five times the level at which the law requires
immediate de-contamination, on vehicles that had already been
'decontaminated' by a city contractor."
|